Know whose call to trust.
You don’t need more forecasts. You need to know which ones held up — that’s Validatora.
Forecasts in
Published institutional forecasts, tracked at the date they were made.
Scored against reality
Each call is measured against realised outcomes, with direction and accuracy.
Trust you can act on
See whose research has earned your attention, indicator by indicator.
Three questions, asked of every forecast
A single accuracy number hides more than it tells. Validatora scores three distinct abilities, because they do not travel together — and the gap between them is usually the interesting part.
Forecast Accuracy
“How close were you, against everyone who faced the same call?”
Every forecast is scored against the published outturn and ranked only against forecasters who faced a comparable call. Ranking is relative, so a hard year penalises nobody — 2020 was hard for everyone.
Economic Direction
“Did you call the direction of the move?”
A forecaster can be numerically imprecise and still be reliably right about whether an indicator rises or falls. For a desk taking a position, that is often the question that matters, so it is scored separately rather than blended away.
Revision Skill
“When you changed your mind, did it help?”
Forecasters revise constantly. Some converge on the answer; others chase noise and move away from it. Every change of mind is scored on whether it closed the gap — which separates a house that learns from one that simply reacts.
Two ways to use the track record
The scoring engine sits behind two tools. One judges research that lands on your desk. The other judges your own view.
Research Validator
Paste any macro research note. Validatora identifies the house that wrote it and every forecast it contains, then reports how that house has actually performed on those specific indicators — not on its reputation.
Comparative Validator
Enter your own forecast for any of the 26 indicators. Validatora places you against the panel — not against the raw consensus, but against the forecasters who have actually been right on that indicator before.
Both tools are shown here as illustrations. They run on live data inside the product.
Personal Rank
Rank the research you actually read.
Upload the research you follow. Validatora extracts the forecasts, scores them against outcomes as they emerge, and shows you whose recommendations have earned your confidence. Private, and separate from the public ranking.
Shown here as an illustration. Provider names and scores are withheld.
Stop guessing who is right.
Start measuring.
An institution needs a minimum track record on an indicator before it carries a score. Below that we show “Limited” rather than a number that looks precise and is not.
The methodology is available to registered users.
What we cover
The macro indicators that move markets, each scored against the publisher’s own outturn, across nine geographies on one engine.
Indicators
26Each indicator is ranked separately. Nobody is good at all of them — a house that reads inflation well may be poor on borrowing, and a single blended score would hide exactly that.
Geographies
9 coveredSee it on real data.
Validatora is in limited release. Tell us who you are and which coverage you need, and we will be in touch about access.
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Have a question first? Ask about the methodology, the coverage roadmap, or how Validatora would fit your process. Send a note and it reaches us directly.